The answer, unfortunately, is that growth and employment around the world look fragile. A big adverse surprise — like the election of Donald Trump in the U.

And, because the latest version was published in early October, it is particularly relevant. This represented a nudge down from the projections in April, with signs of weakening perceived in the U. The most obvious dark cloud on the global horizon is Europe.

The British issues are not helping, but the deeper issues continue to be related to the eurozone itself Britain never adopted the euro. The headline growth number in Spain is somewhat encouraging, continuing to show some rebound. Compounding these macroeconomic issues is the continuing pressure on eurozone banks. These banks have never fully recovered from earlier losses, and their equity capital levels remain low relative to international competitors like the U.

These banks are clearly too big to fail — no European government in its right mind would allow a default on bank debt. But there is no agreement on how to share bank losses across countries. Taken as a whole, the eurozone has enough fiscal capacity to stand behind its banks. But, unfortunately, doing so is still a country-by-country decision — the collective mechanisms for recapitalizing European banks remain partial and far too weak. Compounding these difficulties, growth in middle-income emerging markets is not strong.

Slower growth in these countries is reflected in lower projected imports and lower expected commodity prices, which will negatively affect countries that export raw materials and energy resources.

The Nigerian economy, just to take one example, is expected to contract by 1. Growth in the U. There has been a long steady recovery from the financial crisis, but the effects of that collapse still linger. Trump promises to boost U. It is far more likely that his anti-trade policies would cause a sharp slowdown, much like the British are experiencing. In fact, the impact of a Trump victory on the U. Trump, on the other hand, is determined to curtail imports middle east stock market crash a variety of policies, all of which are well within the power of a president.

He would not need congressional approval to slam the brakes on the U.

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Even in the best of times, U. If this risk were not contained — and the forex utility of a European banking debacle is already disconcertingly high — there would be a further negative spiral.

Either way, the effects on emerging markets and all lower-income countries would be dramatic. But while the precise consequences of bad policies are always hard to predict, if investors are wrong and Trump wins, we should expect a big markdown in expected future earnings for a wide range of stocks — and a likely crash in the broader market.

Stock market CRASH: £27 BILLION wiped off investments as Iran sparks oil price war | World | News | cyzopuk.web.fc2.com

The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters to You. Simon Johnson, rbi forex trading illegal former chief economist of the IMF, is a professor at MIT Sloan, opteck binary options review senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and co-founder of a leading economics blog, The Baseline Scenario.

He is the co-author of "White House Burning: By using this site you agree to the Terms of ServicePrivacy Policyand Cookie Policy. Intraday Data provided by SIX Financial Information and subject to terms of use. Historical and current end-of-day data provided by SIX Financial Information. All quotes are in local exchange time. Real-time last sale data for U. Intraday data delayed at least 15 minutes or per exchange requirements. Breaking Stock market opens slightly higher as Wall Street tries to avoid 2nd straight down day.

Updated These stocks may be ready to pick up the bullish baton from techs.

Iran sanctions: Middle East stock crash wipes £27bn off markets as Tehran enters oil war - Telegraph

Nasdaq Composite up 0. Dow industrials rise 13 points to 21, Breaking Stocks open slightly higher as oil steadies. Ebay launches price matching program. Etsy's stock rallies 0. Etsy job cuts are in addition to layoffs announced in May. Nationstar to move call center operations back to U. Updated Gold prices rise from 5-week lows as dollar eases.

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The stock market could crash if Donald Trump is elected president. By Simon Johnson Columnist. More opinions from Project Syndicate: Related Topics Economics U. Economy Markets Europe U. We Want to Hear from You Join the conversation Comment. MarketWatch Site Index Topics Help Feedback Newsroom Roster Media Archive Premium Products Mobile.

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